Atom Benefits and liabilities Guessing theory Commentary

Ernest Rutherford, Niels Bohr physics

Atom

• J. J. Thomson’s model of the atom—a cloud
• of electrons like plums in a positively charged pudding—
• didn’t explain why a few random alpha particles,
• shot into gold foil—when most passed right through—
• bounced straight back. Ernest Rutherford realized
• that the atom had a small and dense center, its nucleus—
• with a diameter less than one three-thousandth of the atom’s diameter,
• but over ninety-nine point ninety-four percent of the atom’s mass—
• which, being positively charged, keeps its electrons
• orbiting around it, leading Niels Bohr—in explaining
• the pattern of spectral emissions of helium—to say
• electrons are confined to concentric spherical shells
• around the nucleus, and for an electron to jump
• between shells it must absorb or emit the definite amount
• of energy associated with the difference of energies between the shells,
• which explains why atoms emit light in sharply defined spectral lines.

Benefits and liabilities

• Atoms plus an understanding of the periodic table
• gives us chemistry. Atoms plus magnets to move its electrons
• gives us electricity and electronics. Atoms plus the forces
• in the nucleus give us the atom bomb. If we understand the parts
• and how they are put together, then we can take them apart
• and put them back together in useful ways. Some of these operations
• require energy, and some release energy. The goal is to control
• the benefits and to limit the risks, which for most of the effects
• induces denial whose strength is equal to the anticipated power.

Guessing theory

• My first-order approximation
• is a wild and crazy guess.
• My second-order approximation tries only
• to make the guess seem less crazy.
• On further analysis, in some restrictive
• sense, it might be somewhat true,
• but if it’s fundamentally flawed
• then I can see how to change it.
• I run my third-order approximation
• through a battery of hypothetical scenarios,
• each of which may suggest a qualification,
• a refinement, or an additional guess.
• Pretty soon, what begins as a form of fun
• becomes totally unwieldy, like reality.